Bad news for Edmonton Oilers? 'I wouldn't be surprised if Broberg and Holloway become Blues': NHL insider

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This in from NHL insider Frank Seravalli of the Daily Faceoff, a tweet late Thursday evening: “Hockey world waits for #Oilers to render decisions Tuesday on the St. Louis Blues offer sheets to Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway. Recent trades mean everything is still on the table cap-wise, but I wouldn’t be surprised if both Broberg and Holloway become Blues tomorrow. We’ll see.”

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Early in the day, Puckpedia tweeted, “If the Oilers don’t match either Broberg/Holloway, they could start year with $946K Projected Cap Space for 21 healthy + Kane IR. They would accrue cap space. Or, could submit roster including Savoie that’s $59K under cap, put Kane on LTIR, & be able to exceed cap by $5.066M while Kane is out.”

My take

1. I would not be surprised either if this happens either. Seravalli is one of the two or three top insiders in the NHL. I put a huge amount of weight in his reporting. He was on Oilers Now earlier this evening, and sounded far more open to the idea that Broberg might stay in Edmonton with Holloway moving out. Now he’s sending a different message, one that leans to both players leaving Edmonton. I put a lot of weight in this hint.

But, as Servalli says, we shall see.

2. The Oilers need major cap space to match the offer sheets for both Broberg and Holloway. Most importantly, injured Oilers forward Evander Kane would have to go on Long Term Injured Reserve to get that cap space. Kane-to-LTIR has been reported by insiders like Bob Stauffer of the Oilers and TSN’s Ryan Rishaug as likely to happen, but it’s not been reported as a certainty. If it does not happen, the Oilers options are greatly constrained.

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3. There’s also the possibility that Broberg and Holloway could end up in St. Louis by way of trade, with St. Louis and Edmonton working out a bigger deal around the players. As time ticks along, that seems less likely.

4. If Edmonton were to lose Broberg and Holloway it would be a major blow, with responsibility for the loss falling on Oilers management, both the old regime of Ken Holland that failed to sign the two players last winter, as well as the new management of Jeff Jackson that went aggressively over the cap this summer.

Offer sheets are rare, offer sheets are lightning strikes, but there’s no putting lipstick on this pig. This damages Edmonton’s Stanley Cup chances, simple as that.

5. The Oilers are OK at forward to deal with the loss of Holloway, but that would not be the case on defence. Losing both Ceci and Broberg in a two day span, as well as Vincent Desharnais to Vancouver earlier this summer, represents a huge hit to the Oilers on defence.

Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm form one of the top defensive pairings in the NHL right now, but Darnell Nurse’s game fell apart in the second half of last season. Brett Kulak has been great in the playoffs, but has failed to step up as a Top 4 d-man in the regular season. After that, without Broberg, there will be a ton of question marks, including newcomer Ty Emberson, veteran journeymen Troy Stecher and Josh Brown and long-time AHLers Phil Kemp, Cam Dineen, Connor Carrick and Ben Gleason.

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6. However much losing Broberg and Holloway for the poor return of a second and a third round draft pick might sting, and however lacking in depth Edmonton’s defence might now be, if the cap space isn’t there, it’s not there.

Jackson was hailed this summer for breaking the mold in Edmonton by aggressively signing so many free agents, but this will take a huge bite out of that enthusiasm for his leadership of the team, as well as tarnishing Holland’s legacy in Edmonton.

But, again, we shall see.

7. Of course, some fans will be happy if the Oilers refuse to match. They see Holloway and Brobeg as betraying the team by signing with another team. They will be glad to see them gone. I’m not in that camp, but I get the sentiment.

Some fans will also point out that the Oilers now have a chance to build up cap space, and that cap space can be used at the deadline to bring in a useful player. This is a sane argument. But the loss of the two young players would still represent a major loss of speed, youth and skill on the team with very little coming back in return.

8. If the Oilers knew they were not going to match Brobeg, why trade Ceci? I supposed it would be to get needed cap space for the coming season and because the Oilers believe young Emberson is an adequate replacement for Ceci. Maybe he is. I can’t say, not having seen Emberson play.

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To replace Broberg, perhaps the Oil will bring in an inexpensive vet such as Justin Schultz, or even Tyson Barrie.

Without Broberg in the Top 4, Edmonton will most definitely be scrambling.

At the Cult of Hockey

STAPLES: ‘The whole league should be furious’: Upset around NHL over San Jose Sharks helping Edmonton Oilers out of cap hell

STAPLES: What will Edmonton Oilers do on D-Day with Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg?

McCURDY: The Ceci for Emberson trade

STAPLES: Oilers acquire Vasili Podkolzin from Canucks. Does this mean goodbye to Dylan Holloway?

STAPLES: Oilers will regret if they move on from Broberg without giving him the full Paul Coffey treatment

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